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Just for clarity, my extremely speculative guess of the reward table has Velvet's "Change" option slightly reduce the risk of Daybreaker vs. doing the bare minimum (while making the bad outcomes much worse and the good outcomes much better.)
So... my *guess* is that Change has the better EV...
Please do not pretend that we have enough information here to do math on EV or overall odds of Daybreaker or whatever. We do not.
And thus you think we should have picked the option that did not use that extra time to boost Cadance's roll?
It was not zero risk. It was zero change to the risk. Cadance had a notable chance to fail. By investing more time into attempting to Change things, we are rolling to reduce that risk.
Is the combined risk of Change + Cadance higher or lower than the initial Cadance risk? We simply do not know...
I mean. If ruling a country is so hard, maybe we could have devoted an extra action to it in the turn plan. I definitely thought the consensus was that 5 actions were plenty to run Equestria in Cadance's absence.
But at least the Mayor of Ponyville will survive...
</🧂>
Indeed. Any occult dabbler should take note of just how normal and human and well-adjusted the Gods From Flesh are, and decide if the light of Glory is worth the loss of self.
It's a core part of the horror of the game.
Basically, some of the stuff we need to do before All In seemed incredibly bit-hungry. Cherenkolt and Baldomare's befriending and SH sacrament were all believed to be major expenses at the time. Now that we realize we can bilk the taxpayers to fund our long expeditions, the big Baldomare...
I don't think it's really possible to have a morality debate in a horror setting without accepting that an action that is morally horrible may yet be justified by a greater horror. Those things just aren't in contradiction in my mind, as they seem to be in yours.
Beyond that... I do believe...
I mean, I fully expect Velvet to correct Smiles about the method he chose. You're more optimistic about that having a lasting impact on his behavior than I am, but time will tell. And sure, we should send Selene along to limit the disasters that Freedom and Desire can get up to on their little...
I think you might really misunderstand my point. If anyone thinks Velvet is BAD... well, they should listen to Best Pony.
But her cult made Canterlot burn. She got Twilight kidnapped and mutulated. She even stole her friend's free will.
But she went around Ponyville, helping them recover from...
I appreciate the utilitarian logic of this, but I see something a little different. How many people will die because of our decisions? Take one that started this turn: ordering a bunch of people to indoctrinate ponies with Smiles. What's the likely death toll? Hundreds? Thousands? Sure, he's...
I'm with Axe on the efforts to find 'acceptable targets' to murder for power. Does it matter?
We brought a chaotic killer into the Wake. A servant of the Lionsmith, who creates horrific monsters and sets them loose near innocent ponies. And now we're directing our entire faction to empower...
Yeah. Smiles needs an adult in the room.
Actually, Smiles is the adult for Mareienette, and Selene is the adult for Smiles. And poor Selene is forced to be the straight man to both of their hijinks.
[X] (THRONE) You will try to change things.
[X] Plan: All and Two
-[X] (YUXTABEI) Artifacts and curios: Everything
-[X] (SMILES) Artifacts and curios: None
-[X] (SMILES) Accompanying team: Mareinette and Selene
I slightly prefer the Selene addition, but this is really low stakes.
That, and as the pony who chose to deprive Celestia and Equestria of their Moon Princess for a season, and in so doing partially precipitated this crisis, we arguably have the duty to try.